Brazil becomes World Champion

Teacher Piet Post, faculty of Economy and Management, sheds the (statistical) light upon the World Cup and tells en passant about the quarterfinals, the semifinals and the finals. What is his view? He already knows the outcome…
Only the last match is exiting
The World Cup actually starts on 26 June, when the ‘knock-out’ phase begins. The matches before that date are just for amusement and to fill up the tournament. The countries who play them, have after all already gone home on the 26th. If we base our thesis on the FIFA world rankings and the last two World Cups, we can calculate out what the last eight matches will look like:
- France – Greece
- England – Serbia
- Argentina – Uruguay
- Germany – U.S
- Holland – Paraguay
- Brazil – Chili
- Italy – Cameroon
- Spain – Portugal
Only the last of these matches will be exiting, as Spain and Portugal are respectively second and third in the world rankings.
A pity for Holland
The quarterfinals will be played on the 2nd and 3rd of July: Holland against Brazil, France against England, Argentina against Germany and Italy against Portugal (Portugal defeats Spain, based on better results during the last World Cup). Unfortunately, the game ends for Holland, but from 3 July we can enjoy the Tour de France...
Semifinals between the strongest
Brazil against France and Germany against Italy will be the semifinals. France will defeat England. They are ninth on the FIFA list and France eighth, but the last World Cup was better for France. Germany will defeat Argentina. To conclude, Italy will defeat Portugal. Their performance at the last World Cup was also better than the Portuguese.
Brazil versus Italy, the outcome is clear ?
This all will result in the finals between Brazil and Italy. Brazil will win from France, and Italy from Germany. Just look at the game between Inter and Bayern during the Champions League final, but the Italians were also better during the last World Cup. It is clear that Brazil will become World Champion again, for the sixth time. This also corresponds to the fact that no European country has ever become World Champion outside Europe.
Piet Post
(translated by Sensor)


